In this edition of the survey, market experts predict that economic conditions for the housing market will remain stable. This view is shared by 60% of respondents. Thirty% of respondents believed the market situation would deteriorate. The remaining 10% predict that conditions in the housing market will improve.

Poland – residential premises in May 2025

​

In May 2025, construction began on over 19,000 apartments in total. This was 4.8% fewer apartments than in April and 3.7% less than in the same period of 2024. Developers began construction on almost 11,200 apartments, which was 5.6% lower than in April this year and 6.4% lower than in May 2024.

​

In May of this year, permits were issued or construction notifications were made for a total of 20,700 apartments. This was 9.0% more permits issued than in April of this year and 16.4% less than during the same period in 2024. Developers obtained building permits for nearly 12,700 apartments. This was 18.8% more permits issued than in the previous month and 26.3% less than in May of 2024.

​

In May of this year, over 14,600 apartments were completed in total. This was 9.1% fewer apartments than a month earlier and 1.7% less than in May 2024. Developers completed over 9,100 residential units, which was 8.6% lower than in April of this year and 1.4% lower than the same period in 2024.

​

According to BIK data, in May 2025, banks granted 18,780 loans worth PLN 8.25 billion. Month-on-month, the number of loans granted increased by 1.3% and year-on-year by 23.7%. The total amount of loans granted was 1.7% higher than the total amount of loans granted in April of this year. The average loan value was PLN 439,300, which was 0.6% higher than the April average.

​

Despite the continued general market stabilization, price corrections are visible. In the primary market, this applies particularly to projects located on the outskirts of cities or in less attractive locations. In the secondary market, this applies particularly to apartments in older, large-scale buildings. According to data from the Central Statistical Office, a slowdown in the launch of new investments is visible in the development market. This continued state of affairs may lead to limited housing availability by the end of the year. Furthermore, changing legal regulations and more demanding technical requirements pose a challenge for developers, translating into higher investment costs. Demand for apartments remains limited primarily by the persistently high cost of credit. High purchase prices for residential units and a deterioration in rental yields also limit investment demand." – Małgorzata Wełnowska, Senior Real Estate Market Analyst

​

The summer holidays are not conducive to intense market activity or intensified legislative work. It is therefore worth considering the consequences of next year's changes to spatial planning coming into force. More and more voices are being heard from local governments that municipalities may not be ready to implement General Plans, even by the deadline already postponed to July 1, 2026. At the same time, this means the issuance of development decisions has ceased. The question is whether the consequences of this state of affairs have been properly assessed. The revolutionary changes
in spatial planning have not resulted in a rapid increase in the number of planners, especially experienced ones, who are able to properly assess the real needs of each municipality, especially the largest cities. The regulations regarding infill development, which may exclude entire city districts from development, also raise concerns. It is worth revisiting this topic." Michał Kubicki, President of Omega Asset Management and member of the Real Estate Committee of the Polish Chamber of Commerce.

 

The BNG [Business – Real Estate – Economy] Index determines the state of the economy, the real estate market, and the functioning of businesses in Poland. Analysis of the BNG Index for the real estate sector for May 2025 is not encouraging. The Real Estate Index – 30 points – recorded another month of decline in the index, this time by 10 points.

• The lack of a rebound suggests that the market problems are structural, not just temporary.

• Demand remains low and some construction projects are being put on hold.

• There are fewer purchase/sale and rental transactions taking place on the real estate market.

• Some markets are seeing significant corrections in property prices.

• Developers' problems with selling apartments limit their construction activity.

• The cost of obtaining a mortgage remains high due to the lack of interest rate cuts.

​

The BNG index indicates a further weakening of the economic situation in all three segments [Business – Real Estate – Economy]. Uncertainty in the business sector and persistent month-on-month problems in real estate are the main barriers to restoring growth. The lack of improvement in the economy translates into concern about the state of prosperity of the country and its citizens in the long run," said Tomasz Błeszyński, real estate market advisor.

​

The entire market, without exception, is watching what awaits us with the General Plans of Municipalities. If it turns out to be an embarrassment (not of the municipalities, of course, but of the ministry that came up with it), the market will cry heavily. Let's hope it doesn't turn out that from July next year (so in just twelve months) the supply of new developer contracts for the supply of apartments (called preliminary agreements) will collapse "Development plans), because the areas already covered by local development plans are largely built up, and there's no way to apply for new development conditions, because either there aren't enough municipal general plans, or the so-called supplementary areas in these plans are by all means modest. I still don't understand why the money (after all, it's a whopping PLN 2 billion) that hasn't been used (and already been checked off) for government housing support programs couldn't be reallocated to support the mass development of local development plans for poor local governments." – Sławomir Horbaczewski, economist

 

Apartment prices in large cities

The urban.one index value for apartments in large cities increased by 0.34 points within a month and amounted to 130.32 points in May 2025.

In this edition of the survey, experts predict that housing prices will decline. This view is shared by 60% of respondents. The remainder support price stabilization in the coming six months.

Large Cities – residential premises in May 2025

"Monitoring of offer prices conducted by Cenatorium shows that in May, average apartment prices fluctuated locally. In Gdańsk, average offer prices on the primary market increased by 1.3%, while prices stabilized. The opposite situation occurred in other large cities. On the primary market, average apartment prices decreased from 0.4% in Kraków to 3.8% in Łódź. On the secondary market, we recorded average price increases ranging from 0.3% in Łódź to 1.9% in Poznań on a monthly basis. The offer of apartments for sale in the analyzed cities increased by approximately 2% on a monthly basis. The highest number of new sale offers in May appeared in Gdańsk and Gdynia, which led to an increase in supply by a total of almost 9% during the month. The only city where we are recording a decrease in supply is Łódź. At the end of the year, the capital of the Łódź Voivodeship was the second market in terms of the supply of apartments for sale on the primary market, second only to Warsaw. In May, the offer in Łódź shrank by approximately 2% during the month. month, and by over 3% since the beginning of the year." – Małgorzata Wełnowska, senior real estate market analyst

​​

"The situation on the housing market has been relatively calm recently. Buyers and sellers no longer place great hopes in the loan subsidy program; they are focusing on the here and now. The price drops expected by some observers have so far been very modest and there is little indication of them deepening. The coming months will bring further stabilization or minor adjustments in one direction or the other. A broadly understood stabilization is maintained in developers' price lists. Prices are falling slightly in Krakow and Wrocław, but rising in Warsaw and the Tricity. The longest declines are in Wrocław, where a record high was reached in September last year." Since then, the average asking price per square meter of a developer's apartment has dropped from PLN 14,500 to PLN 14,000, i.e. by 3.5%. – Marcin Krasoń, housing market expert, Otodom